CAN WE LEARN FROM JAPAN'S ECONOMIC STMULUS

The facts Behind the NEWS

From 1991 thru 2008 Japan had a gov’t stimulus program. The US economy is not identical to the Japanese but there are similarities. The US is roughly twice as large an economy as Japan. Experts in Japan and the US believe Japan spent too much money on infrastructure and not enough on education and social services which create more jobs per $ spent than infrastructure. JAPANESE STATISTICS: every yen spent on infrastructure added 1.37 yen, 1.6 yen for social services like care for the elderly, pension payments, 1.74 for schools and education. However money spent on infrastructure does put people to work and thus may help prevent a depression or total collapse. These figures are from The Japanese Institute of Local Government, a non-profit policy research group.

The stimulus worked best from 1991 to 1995 when Japan spent two trillion dollars for a 3% rise in Japanese GNP. An equivalent effort for the US would be four trillion dollars, Our present stimulus plan is only $780 billion.

The experts believed in a quick massive stimulus with a follow-up at a lower level for some time, till recovery takes root. Japanese experts thought that the stimulus was cut back in 1995 to a lower level too soon. Some experts thought that this is what happened to FDR in the US causing the 1937 recession. To be effective the stimulus must be kept going for some time. The Japanese stimulus was started up again but at a lower level than the original start. The second stimulus start showed little effect though it was continued for 10 years.

Japan’s economy did grow from 2003 to 2007. Japanese experts think that what helped the Japanese economy the most was the gradual rebuilding of private balance sheets and banks liquidity, and increased exports to China and the US. Japan experts strongly recommended projects that would be helpful fora number of years. They emphasized transparent decisions based on economics not politics.